The gas supply cut marks a new phase in EU-Russia relations, with internal tensions and energy challenges for several member states.
Soldecanarias.net
Russian gas ceased flowing to the European Union via Ukraine, following the expiration of a five-year transit agreement. This deal, which had been vital since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, marks the end of an era of cheap gas for European countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that his country would not allow Russia to continue earning billions of dollars «with our blood,» referring to the ongoing conflict that has shaped relations between the two nations since 2022. In his address, he emphasized the importance of not letting Moscow profit from the situation while the war continues.
In response, the Polish government called the cut «another victory» against Russia. Meanwhile, the European Commission assured that the EU was prepared for this shift, highlighting that most member states would not face significant supply disruptions. However, countries like Moldova, which is not part of the EU, have already begun experiencing gas shortages.
Russia, for its part, still maintains gas supply routes to some countries, such as Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia, through the TurkStream pipeline, which runs across the Black Sea. However, the suspension of transit through Ukraine represents a significant loss for Moscow, which has relied on these routes to export gas to Europe since 1991. President Vladimir Putin stated that the cut would affect EU countries more than Russia.
Immediate Effects and Adaptation Strategies
While the immediate effects of the cut have been moderate, the symbolic and strategic impact is huge. The European Union has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine, with imports falling from 40% in 2021 to less than 10% in 2023. Despite this decrease, several countries in Eastern Europe still rely heavily on Russian imports.
Gas remains crucial for nations like Slovakia and Austria, which still import large amounts of Russian gas. In this context, Slovakia, now one of the main entry points for Russian gas into the EU, has already warned of rising prices. The Slovak government has stated that it will pay more for alternative supply routes.
Robert Fico, Slovakia’s Prime Minister, indicated that the end of the agreement would have «dramatic» consequences for the EU but not for Russia. In response, President Zelensky accused Fico of indirectly helping Moscow by weakening Ukraine and contributing to the financing of the war.
Moldova in Crisis
The impact of the cut is especially severe for Moldova, which is not an EU member. The country depends heavily on Russian gas for its electricity supply, and the interruption has affected both the capital and the separatist region of Transnistria, which receives support from Moscow. On January 1, Gazprom cut gas to Moldova for failing to meet its payment obligations, resulting in power outages and a lack of heating in several areas, with temperatures dropping below freezing.
The Moldovan government has reacted by accusing Russia of using energy as a «political weapon» to destabilize the country, particularly with the general elections scheduled for 2025. Additionally, President Maia Sandu has called on the international community to increase its support in light of the energy crisis.
Alternatives and New Supply Routes
In response to the energy crisis, the European Union has sought alternative sources of gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States, as well as gas transported from Norway. Poland has also emphasized its willingness to help Ukraine and other Eastern European countries find alternative routes, such as connections from Germany, Poland, and an LNG terminal in Croatia.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski highlighted that these new routes could allow Europe to diversify its supply further and reduce dependence on Russian gas. According to Sikorski, «alternative routes should be explored to prevent Russia from continuing to profit at the EU’s expense.»
Conclusion
The end of the gas transit agreement through Ukraine marks a radical shift in the energy relationship between Russia and the European Union. As European countries prepare to face new challenges, such as rising prices and shortages in some cases, the war in Ukraine remains a determining factor in energy supply decisions. As Europe seeks alternatives and strengthens its infrastructure, the most important lesson seems to be the need to reduce dependence on energy sources from regimes that use these resources as geopolitical leverage.
