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Mohamed Jamil Derbah affirms that there are two governments and the specter of war hangs over everyone: Libya has broken again


Elections and only elections is what can solve this situation, since it would give way to power to Saif al Islam, the only way of settlement

The picture generates a certain déjà vu: two parallel governments that declare themselves legitimate and operate at the same time while competing for control of Libya. A new fracture that shows the failure of the plan to reunify the institutions of the State, which continues to break down more than a decade after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime. The Mediterranean country once again faces a worrying future, marked by confusion, a growing internal division and an unstable and increasingly fragile peace.

Politician FathiBashagha, chosen last February as Prime Minister of Libya by his controversial Parliament, announced that he would resume work at the head of the executive from the coastal city of Sirte, in the center of the country. Meanwhile, in the capital Tripoli, Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibé, of the national unity government, in office since February 2021, continued to report as usual on his commitments: from meetings with various municipal leaders to follow up of the situation of the services in the area and the execution of projects until the inauguration of a medical insurance program for the elderly.

Two rival administrations

 Libya had been split before. Since 2014, when a civil war broke out and controversial elections were held, two rival administrations, with the support of fragile constellations of militias and different international allies, have been consolidating one in the east and the other in the west of the country. The division worsened to the point that, in April 2019, the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army, dominant in the east of the country, launched an offensive on Tripoli, to the west, which, failing, led to a brutal siege of the capital.
 That waiting period was only broken a year later thanks to the Turkish intervention in favor of the Tripoli government recognized by the international community, which forced the LNA, which has the support of Russia and the United Arab Emirates, to withdraw. And the two sides ended up signing a ceasefire in October 2020.
 Taking advantage of that milestone, the following month the UN established a dialogue forum made up of seventieth Libyan personalities to define a roadmap, which included the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections in December 2021 and the constitution of a transitional government to manage the process. At the head of the executive they placed Dbeibé, who in March 2021 received the approval of Parliament, based in the east. It was the first time in years that Libya experienced a peaceful transfer of power and had a single government.
 The limits of that sweet harmony, however, soon appeared. Institutional unification did not advance, especially at the military level, and the foreign and mercenary forces allied with each other showed no intention of leaving. The situation deteriorated until the Parliament that had granted support to Dbeibé withdrew it and the powerful president of the chamber, Aguilah Salah, signed a law to hold elections in December, but only presidential ones and without first approving a constitutional basis .
 Despite the irregularities and shortcomings of the process, and the general feeling that Libya was heading towards a leap into the void without any guarantees, the great powers supported the electoral appointment. Tension and violence
 Tension and violence were on the rise in the weeks leading up to elections that were ultimately not held and pushed Libya into uncertainty. The Eastern Parliament then considered that the mandate of the Dbeibé transitional government had expired, and in February they elected Bashagha as prime minister with the approval of the LNA commander, KhalifaHaftar. Dbeibé, however, had already become strong in Tripoli. And, protected by allied militias, he has refused to relinquish power, saying his mandate has to continue until the country can hold elections.
The point of maximum tension as a result of this new division occurred in mid-May, when Bashagha entered Tripoli, seat of the Dbeibé government, to try to establish himself with the help of a powerful local militia. But the forceful response of the militias related to Dbeibé led to hours of clashes that forced Bashagha to withdraw.
 And it was then that the latter decided to establish the headquarters of his executive on the Sirte coast. The episode was a brief display of the risk of an escalation of violence that exists in the country today and re-exposed the enormous power of the militias in determining the future of Libya.
 Oil blocke
 In addition, to add pressure to Dbeibé, tribal leaders close to Commander Haftar, who supports Bashagha, have closed a large part of the country's oil facilities, which represent the main source of income for the State, whose finances are controlled from Tripoli. This is a particularly painful blockade at the moment, because the price of oil, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is currently through the roof and Libya is not benefiting from it.
 The UN, in turn, has lost the influence it had exercised before December 24 over the political future of the country. And, despite the fact that several political leaders have met in Egypt to try to build bridges, the lack of neutrality of Cariz, an ally of the president of Parliament, leaves little room for hope. In this context, moreover, the dialogue forum established by the UN at the end of 2020, and which chose Dbeibé as prime minister, expires at the end of June, which could further aggravate the crisis of legitimacy and the danger of a new military escalation.
All this means that the established powers in Libya do not want the elections, even if the people want the opposite. And it is the people who take to the streets, but then their voices fade away, while the clinging continues, seeking only what is their own, as is the case with General Halftar, although everyone looks to the United States in the face of a sentence that can change it. everything, if it is against him.
 This position has prevented elections from being held and therefore the inevitable from taking place, which is Saif al-Islam's arrival in power, since he starts out as the favorite and it is clear that his presence, his poise and above all His preparation is a guarantee that he will know how to lead the country to a better and more prosperous future.

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